In recent months, a surge of speculation and analysis has emerged regarding Bangladesh’s strategic intentions toward Myanmar, particularly in the context of the ongoing Rohingya repatriation efforts and the complex civil conflict in Rakhine State. Some media outlets and analysts have floated theories suggesting that Bangladesh is preparing for military engagement alongside the Arakan Army (AA) and Chin National Army (CNA), allegedly under the patronage of the United States. Others speculate that Bangladesh might be supporting secessionist movements or acting as a destabilizing force in the region. These claims, while dramatic, often lack solid evidence and tend to exaggerate Bangladesh’s role and ambitions.
By Imran Hossain
Such narratives raise questions about Bangladesh’s future policy in Myanmar and its broader regional posture. Is Bangladesh truly gearing up for military involvement or proxy warfare? Or are these “wild ideas” more reflective of geopolitical anxieties than grounded realities?
Given Bangladesh’s longstanding foreign policy traditions—centered on balance, diplomacy, and peace promotion—it is essential to critically assess these claims and understand what Bangladesh’s Myanmar policy realistically entails.
Recent Context and Speculations on Bangladesh’s Role in Myanmar and Northeast India
The backdrop for much of the speculation includes Bangladesh’s self-description as “the sole guardian of the ocean” and the United Nations’ proposal for a humanitarian corridor through Bangladesh into Arakan (Rakhine). These developments have been interpreted by some as provocative gestures toward India and as signs of Bangladesh’s growing regional ambitions.
Pro-Indian analysts and certain news portals have fueled narratives that Bangladesh is preparing to engage militarily in Arakan, backed by Western powers, particularly the United States. Reports have circulated about the Bangladesh Army constructing logistics bases near the Myanmar border, expanding drone capabilities, and facilitating secret meetings between Arakanese rebels and U.S. officials in Dhaka.
However, these interpretations frequently overlook key facts and the broader diplomatic context. Many of these claims originate from sources with geopolitical biases, particularly those wary of Bangladesh’s evolving partnerships and its nuanced stance in a complex regional environment, especially after the July Revolution. The portrayal of Bangladesh’s efforts to communicate with the Arakan Army as “US proxy operations” ignores the pragmatic security imperatives Bangladesh faces along its border with Myanmar.
Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy and Guiding Principles
Bangladesh’s foreign policy has historically been guided by the principle of “Friendship to All, Malice to None.” This approach emphasizes diplomatic balance, non-alignment, and peaceful coexistence with neighbors and global powers alike. Bangladesh strives to maintain equitable relations with regional powerhouses such as India and China, while also engaging with global powers including the United States and Japan.
Importantly, Bangladesh has no precedent of offensive military diplomacy or engaging in proxy conflicts. Its foreign policy has consistently prioritized peace, stability, and development over confrontation. However, the Rohingya crisis remains a paramount foreign policy concern, with Bangladesh seeking humanitarian solutions and repatriation agreements rather than military escalation.
Interest of Bangladesh in Myanmar
Bangladesh’s engagement with Myanmar is multifaceted but primarily focused on border security, humanitarian concerns, and regional stability. The country shares a long and porous border with Myanmar’s Rakhine State, where the Rohingya refugee crisis originated. Since the massive exodus of Rohingya refugees beginning in 2017, Bangladesh has been deeply invested in facilitating their safe, voluntary, and dignified repatriation.
From a security perspective, the presence of the Arakan Army—an ethnic armed organization controlling significant territory in Rakhine—poses complex challenges. The AA controls approximately 80% of Rakhine State’s territory and controls all border posts on the Bangladesh-Myanmar frontier. This reality necessitates some level of communication and coordination to prevent cross-border security threats and maintain stability.
Bangladesh’s primary interest is to ensure that no armed conflict spills over into its territory and that its borders remain secure. Engagement with the AA, therefore, is pragmatic and defensive rather than offensive or ideological.
Bangladesh’s Likely Future Policy in Myanmar
Given the above considerations, Bangladesh’s future policy toward Myanmar is expected to follow a rational, cautious, cost-effective, and peace-oriented trajectory.
Firstly, Bangladesh is unlikely to take sides militarily in Myanmar’s civil war or ethnic insurgencies to remain out of the complex internal conflict. Its focus remains on diplomatic engagement and humanitarian concerns.
Secondly, Bangladesh will continue to prioritize engaging with the Myanmar “government of the day”, regardless of its political composition, to negotiate issues such as border security and refugee repatriation to maintain state-to-state relations.
Thirdly, to ensure Rohingya repatriation, Bangladesh will work bilaterally with the Myanmar Government and multilaterally through platforms, including ASEAN and BIMSTEC, to advance repatriation efforts and ensure the rights and safety of Rohingya refugees. In the recent BIMSTEC sideline, Bangladesh held a meeting with Myanmar over the issue, after which certain developments in this regard followed.
Fourthly, given the AA’s control along the border, Bangladesh is likely to maintain pragmatic communication channels to minimize security risks and understand the group’s stance on repatriation and cross-border issues.
Fifthly, Bangladesh will continue to partner with international organizations to manage refugee camps, facilitate humanitarian aid, and create conducive conditions for repatriation.
Sixth, engaging militarily with the AA or supporting secessionist movements would be counterproductive, costly, and dangerous for Bangladesh. Such actions would risk destabilizing Bangladesh’s own territory and undermining its international standing. Therefore, Bangladesh, as a rational actor, would avoid military engagement or proxy warfare.
Lastly, Bangladesh’s policies will be driven by the imperative to safeguard its sovereignty, prevent cross-border insurgency, and maintain regional peace for its national interest.
Why Military Engagement and Proxy Operations Are Highly Unlikely?
The claims that Bangladesh is preparing for military operations alongside the Arakan Army or acting as a proxy for U.S. interests do not align with Bangladesh’s strategic logic.
To begin with, security risks outweigh benefits. Military involvement in Myanmar’s ethnic conflicts would expose Bangladesh to retaliatory attacks, refugee influxes, risks to territorial integrity, and invite internal instability.
After that, the economic and diplomatic costs are too high. Bangladesh’s development trajectory depends on stable regional relations and international goodwill. Proxy warfare would jeopardize trade, investment, and diplomatic partnerships.
Moreover, Bangladesh has consistently avoided offensive military diplomacy or proxy conflicts, focusing instead on diplomacy and multilateral cooperation.
Furthermore, engaging in Myanmar’s internal conflicts risks alienating key neighbors like India and China, with whom Bangladesh maintains delicate but constructive relations.
Finally, as a rational actor, Bangladesh prioritizes long-term stability and national interest over geopolitical gambits beyond borders.
Bangladesh’s policy toward Myanmar is shaped by a commitment to peaceful settlement, humanitarian responsibility, and national security. While the Arakan Army’s presence along the border is a reality that necessitates communication, this does not imply that Bangladesh is becoming a ‘spoiler’ in regional stability or engaging in proxy warfare.
Bangladesh’s approach should be pragmatic and defensive—focused on ensuring border security, facilitating Rohingya repatriation, and maintaining constructive state-to-state relations. In a region fraught with complex conflicts and competing interests, Bangladesh should remain a voice for balance, dialogue, and peace. Its Myanmar policy, therefore, is likely to reflect these principles, aiming to avoid further security risks while contributing to regional stability and humanitarian solutions. The future will likely see Bangladesh continuing to navigate these challenges with caution, diplomacy, and a steadfast commitment to its national and regional interests.
Imran Hossain, Lecturer, Department of Business Administration, Rabindra Maitree University, Kushtia. (MBA), (BBA), University of Rajshahi.
