Just days after Donald Trump won a landslide victory in the US presidential election, Ambassador Humayun Kabir, a credible commentator on foreign affairs, said in an interview with an independent newspaper Prothom Alo that the bilateral relationship with Bangladesh and the United States will not be sailing in troubled water, as expected by ousted Sheikh Hasina’s loyalists.
“I do not foresee any major changes in US-Bangladesh relations,” the former diplomat said confidently.
He also said that unlike in South Asian countries, American foreign policy does not change after a change of government, whether the Democrats or Republicans win the election.
It is very rare for an incumbent regime in US polity to engage in witch-hunting of loyalists of the previous government or opposition political party. This unfortunately is very common in South Asia’s revenge political culture. Dr Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh’s interim government’s chief adviser, has congratulated Trump on his election as the new US president, expressing optimism for strengthened bilateral ties and future cooperation.
Anyway, as reported on social media the disgraced Awami League and its exiled leader Sheikh Hasina were upbeat about Trump. They had an impression that his election victory would help Hasina return to power, who is living in exile in Delhi.
The Awami League loyalists believe that Trump, who lauded Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a “good friend” and in a condemnation of “the barbaric violence against Hindus, Christians…in Bangladesh”, would lend moral support to Hasina to return to power with the Indian help.
US President-elect Trump, who will be sworn in January 2025, painted Bangladesh under Dr Yunus as if the country is “in a total state of chaos.”
Promptly, Shafiqul Alam, press secretary to the chief adviser, said that Trump was provided wrong information on the contentious religious minorities issue after the interim government took charge in early August. Meanwhile, Michael Kugelman – a South Asia expert, particularly focused on Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India and Pakistan – said US-Bangladesh relations experienced a reset this year. It began after Bangladesh’s election last January, when US President Joe Biden sent Hasina a warmly worded letter, expressing “my sincere desire” to co-operate in a wide variety of spheres, after many months of bilateral tensions in the lead up to an election that the State Department would categorize as not free or fair. In a hurry, Hasina sank her ‘Boat’ (the party’s election symbol). And political observers explain that it would be a herculean task to salvage the capsized boat in the years to come.
Obviously, Hasina ignored Biden’s warning. She went ahead to hold a flawed parliamentary election for the third consecutive term. The reset truly took off after the mass movement against Hasina last monsoon that brought Yunus to power. The State Department quickly issued a statement saying it “stands ready to work” with Bangladesh’s interim government, says Kugelman. When she fled, she did not leave any message to her party leaders and members, who were left behind to face the wrath of the Interim Government. In a hurry, Hasina sank her ‘Boat’ (the party’s election symbol). And political observers explain that it would be a herculean task to salvage the capsized boat in the years to come.
Dr Yunus, like the US government, had been critical of Hasina’s illiberal and anti-democratic policies, writes Kugelman, the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center in Netra News, an investigative journalism portal based in Sweden. However, Trump’s election campaign “Make America Great Again” in his recent social media broadside against Bangladesh should be viewed against the backdrop of US electoral politics, he opined.
Meanwhile, a verified Facebook of Awami League announced observing Shaheed Noor Hossain Day on 10 November, who was killed in police firing in a 1990 student movement during the military rule of Gen Hossain Mohammad Ershad’s (1982-1990). Less than a month later, dictator Gen Ershad was toppled and imprisoned for corruption. The Awami League announced at a protest rally at Noor Hossain Square in the capital Dhaka to eliminate undemocratic forces (the interim government of Dr Yunus) and restore the democratic system.
A purported audio message (which could not be verified independently) of Hasina urged the protesters to hold the portrait of Trump. Police detained scores of people having Trump’s poster. Law enforcement crackdown against Awami League with Trump signs has drawn flak from Trump’s supporters on Twitter (X) handle @TrumpUpdateH. It says: Bangladesh police arrests Trump supporters for celebrating Trump’s victory.
Dr Yunus’ office also in a press release has made a rebuttal of the news stories in Indian media regarding the crackdown on Trump supporters in Bangladesh. There have been no arrests or crackdowns on the Trump supporters, said the chief adviser’s media wing on Sunday night. The government has vowed to prevent the Awami League protest. The statement described the Awami League as a “fascist party” and added that the political outfit would not be allowed to hold any gathering anywhere in Bangladesh.
Earlier, Dr Yunus in an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times said there is ‘no place’ for Hasina’s ‘fascist’ party in Bangladesh’s politics. The inventor of “Banking the Poor” described the political party (Awami League) of ousted authoritarian leader Hasina as exhibiting “all the characteristics of fascism”. He reiterated that Bangladesh would not seek the exiled leader’s extradition from India before the International Crimes Tribunal’s verdict, where she has been accused of crimes against humanity.
The FT writes that political rivals and human rights groups have accused the Awami League of rigging at least three elections (2014, 2018 and 2024), carrying out extrajudicial killings, and politicization of state institutions during Hasina’s 15-year tenure (2009-2024).
The students who toppled Hasina from power have been demanding to ban the Awami League. The government has already banned the student’s wing Chhatra League for mobilization of armed vigilante “Helmet Bahini” during the Monsoon Revolution.
While the government is debating whether the party should be temporarily suspended from politics, required to reform, or banned entirely.
Regarding the democratization process of the country, the government is in a fix on how to justify when a free, fair, inclusive election is held to form a political government. The 84-year-old Nobel peace prize winner speculates that the Awami League might disintegrate, but stressed that its fate would not be decided by his interim administration as it was “not a political government”.
Any decision on whether Awami League could participate in a future election would be decided by a “consensus” of political parties themselves, he told FT. “They have to decide their political space.”
On the other hand, Awami League’s cyber warriors, loyalist intellectuals, journalists and expatriate Bangladesh nationals have been arguing that after Hasina fled to India, she is still recognized as Prime Minister of Bangladesh by New Delhi.
This prompted South Block in New Delhi to explain the status of Hasina. “We have repeatedly said that she (Sheikh Hasina) is a former Prime Minister, that is where it stands,” Ministry of External Affairs spokesman Randhir Jaiswal told the journalists in New Delhi last week.
However, India is officially yet to accept that the people of Bangladesh have toppled the Hasina’s government. It could be understood from the striking feature of Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar’s statement in the Lok Sabha (the Lower House of the People) on August 6 (the following day Hasina fled to New Delhi) – a complete failure to mention the Awami League government’s egregious violation of human rights, and the killings of over 1,000 students and maimed nearly 30,000 people in 36 days of July and August.
Jaishankar began setting up a context for the people’s uprising saying that there had been “considerable tensions, deep divides and growing polarization in Bangladesh politics” since the January election. “This underlying foundation aggravated a student agitation that started in June this year,” he told the Lower House. “There was growing violence, including attacks on public buildings and infrastructure, as well as traffic and rail obstructions. The violence continued through the month of July.”
The minister’s statement does not hint that Hasina’s government reacted with overwhelmingly excessive force against students, and police opened fire on protesters with live rounds, writes Tanim Ahmed in an independent newspaper The Daily Star.
Since the Indian external affairs minister glosses over the former government’s brutality, it appears to paint the anti-government movement behind Hasina’s fall with a nefarious intention from its genesis — which fits into the Awami League’s narrative — that this was a movement fomented by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), Jamaat-e-Islami or even external forces such as the US. In fact, BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami took advantage of what turned into a bloody anti-government campaign and publicly supported the student movement.
Back to Jaishankar’s statement, when he says, “Events took a very serious turn.” His deliberate disregard for brewing tension among Bangladeshis, Awami League’s intolerance for dissent and telltale signs of the Hasina regime turning into a classic autocrat show a rather myopic and oversimplified Indian take on what is happening in Bangladesh. Jaishankar’s articulate and witty tête-à-tête with journalists or at discussion panels around the world convincingly demonstrates that he lacks the caliber to appreciate these nuances. One wonders, then, if he had not been properly briefed by his aides on what happened in Bangladesh.
Tanim Ahmed concludes that the Indian establishment had built relations with the Awami League instead of Bangladesh.
The South Block’s Look East policy was to keep Hasina in good humor and continued to support Awami League for expedience despite its faults, and in the process alienated the people of the country.
In a contradiction to the philosophy of Chanakya (375–283 BCE), an ancient Indian master of diplomatic strategy, the debacle created by South Block was putting all eggs in one basket of Hasina. When the eggs are spoiled, the damage control is not effectively working.
Today, with the ouster of Hasina and the Awami League, India is quite naturally seeing more than its fair share of criticism and a dip in popularity.
First published in the Stratheia Policy Journal, 11 November 2024
Saleem Samad is an award-winning independent journalist based in Bangladesh. A media rights defender with the Reporters Without Borders (@RSF_inter). Recipient of Ashoka Fellowship and Hellman-Hammett Award. He could be reached at saleemsamad@hotmail.com; Twitter (X): @saleemsamad
