The latest developments surrounding Ukraine reveal an uncomfortable truth: Europe has become a geopolitical pawn, its leaders reduced to mere spectators as Washington and Moscow dictate the terms of its future. The recent Trump-Putin call and subsequent US statements signal a blatant sidelining of European interests, exposing both NATO and the European Union as strategic non-entities in a crisis that directly impacts their own security.
That it has come to this point is not solely due to the domineering Trump, but also to Europe’s complacency, lack of responsibility, and absence of vision.
A Negotiation Over Europe’s Head
European leaders have made it clear: they want to be part of any negotiationsdetermining Ukraine’s fate. Yet, the Trump administration’s unilateral approach suggests otherwise.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s comments – dismissing Ukraine’s NATO aspirations and relegating Europe to an auxiliary role in securing peace – reaffirm what has been clear for some time: the US no longer sees Europe as an equal partner but as a dependent entity expected to fall in line.
This is not just an insult; it is a wake-up call.
The US and Russia are carving up Europe’s future without its input, and European leaders, despite their statements, appear powerless to alter the course of events. If European capitals truly believe that Ukraine’s security is integral to their own, they must act and not just issue declarations.
NATO’s Existential Crisis
If NATO’s primary role is to ensure European security, then how does it justify its irrelevance in these critical negotiations? The Trump administration’s position makes it clear: the US sees NATO as a tool for its own strategic interests, not as a collective security mechanism where European voices matter.
NATO’s Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, must now decide whether he is merely a mouthpiece for Washington or if he will assert the alliance’s European members’ interests.
If NATO allows Trump and Putin to dictate terms without European involvement, it effectively confirms what many critics have long argued: the alliance is a farce, a structure that exists at the mercy of American political whims. Europe cannot afford such a dependency.
The Roots of Europe’s Dependence
What is even more damning is that Europe has long accepted – and even welcomed – its subjugation to the United States. This dependency was not just a result of post-war reconstruction but a deliberate US policy to keep Europe reliant and encased within American strategic priorities. And Europe, complacent and risk-averse, has always acquiesced.
The idea that Europe is now being abandoned should not come as a surprise: it was never meant to stand on its own. But therein lies an opportunity. This crisis exposes the unhealthy nature of Europe’s relationship with the US. The transatlantic alliance, as it stands, is neither equal nor beneficial. This is a moment for Europe to break free from its dependence and define its own geopolitical path.
Yet, instead of seizing this moment, European leaders remain timid, unwilling even to emphasize the undeniable truth: the US needs Europe just as much as Europe has relied on the US. Washington cannot maintain its global primacy without a strong, cooperative, and strategically autonomous Europe.
But Europe, paralyzed by its own subservience, refuses to assert this leverage.
Strategic Autonomy or Permanent Subjugation?
The call for European ‘strategic autonomy’ has been repeated ad nauseam, but when the moment of truth arrives, European leaders still defer to Washington. This is not just a question of military capacity; it is a question of political will. If Europe cannot field a 100,000-strong deterrence force for Ukraine, as one senior diplomat admits, then what does that say about the continent’s ability to defend itself against future threats?
The EU, for all its economic power, remains a geopolitical lightweight because it has refused to take real responsibility for its own security. The alternative to continued subjugation is clear: Europe must develop independent defense capabilities, coordinate its own strategic policies, and stop waiting for Washington’s approval before taking action.
The End of the Illusion
Zelenskyy’s recent admission that ‘security guarantees without America are not real’ is the logical outcome of decades of European complacency. But this does not have to be Europe’s fate. If European leaders fail to assert themselves now, they will confirm their status as vassals in a new geopolitical order where their fate is decided in Moscow and Washington, not in Brussels, Paris, or Berlin.
The time for rhetoric is over. If Europe truly believes in its strategic autonomy, it must prove it. Otherwise, it should stop pretending it has a say in the fate of Ukraine, or its own future.
Ingo Piepers Founder @ Global4Cast | PhD, International Security, Consultancy
