Radical pronouncements from the new American president have galvanised Canadian society and government alike. They have united Canadians and greatly improved the chances of the ruling Liberal party to win the forthcoming elections. President Trump has made consistent threats to annex Canada, which would more than double the territory of the United States. Trump has repeatedly addressed Canadian prime minister as “governor of the 51st state”. He has also introduced drastic new custom duties (tariffs in Trump’s language) on imports from Canada, a measure that negatively impacts Canadian economy.
This turmoil has sharply highlighted Canada’s dependence on the United States. This is not the first time that the risks of such dependence become evident. For example, during the recent COVID-19 epidemic, Americans diverted vital medical supplies destined for Canada. Back then, I argued that Canada should reduce its dependence on the southern neighbour and diversify its supply chains and, more broadly, restructure its economic and financial relations. With American power in decline, I called for Ottawa to emancipate itself from Washington.
However, Canadian government did not heed that call made, of course, by many others besides me. This was particularly ironic given that Canada had long advised Ukraine to distance from its powerful neighbour, Russia, ever since Ukraine’s political independence in 1991.
There are gradual, non-defiant ways to reduce reliance on the United States by forging closer ties with other powers. Yet rather than improving its relations with China, India and Russia – all three showing impressive rates of economic growth, respectively, 5.2, 8.2 and 3.8 – Canada has instead damaged them. Instead, the Trudeau government has made seemingly atavistic attempts at rapprochement with Europe. However, the declining economic health of most European nations makes economic integration with them hardly beneficial. Europe’s sanctions against Russia – adopted at Washington’s behest – and the destruction of a major gas pipeline from that country, most likely also by the United States, have seriously undermined Germany (growth rate minus 0.3), traditionally regarded as Europe’s industrial locomotive. Canada’s overtures to Europe may therefore prove insufficient to mitigate the harm done by its mighty southern neighbour.
In one of his last speeches as the prime minister, Trudeau reaffirmed his government’s determination to resist American punitive actions. He lamented that “the United States launched a trade war against Canada, their closest partner and ally, their closest friend. At the same time, they’re talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir Putin…” It is unlikely this kind of reproach can soften Trump’s stance.
While Canada has committed to increasing its military budget, it is not meant to deter the explicit threat of annexation by the United States, even though no other country is seeking to end Canada’s very existence. The new emphasis on strengthening its armed forces is officially justified by perceived menace from China and Russia, as well as the need to help Ukraine sustain its war effort. Canadian forces remain deeply integrated with their American counterparts, and, in any case, armed resistance is unthinkable as a means to safeguard Canada’s independence. Few Canadians would volunteer to repeat Ukraine’s tragic error of fighting its more powerful eastern neighbour. This is why the resources promised to the military should better be used to strengthen Canadian welfare state, above all, to help the destitute whose numbers steadily grow, and to refocus economic outreach on steadily growing regions.
Since Canada faces a true existential threat from the United States, its government needs to seek alternative alliances. One can only hope that the new Liberal government of Mark Carney will find strength to take bold initiatives. The announced review of the purchase of 88 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin appears to justify this hope. Radical changes unfolding in Washington demand an equally radical transformation of Ottawa’s international relations.
Source: Russia in Global Affairs
