An in-depth analysis of the future of Europe in Africa.
Merja Kyllönen – is a Finnish politician and Member of the European Parliament. She is a member of the Left Alliance, part of The Left in the European Parliament – GUE/NGL. She was the Minister of Transport in Finland (2011–2014).
In 2018, Kyllönen was the candidate of the Vasemmistoliitto Party in the Finnish presidential election.
By the beginning of 2025, the agenda of redefinition of spheres of influence and redistribution of regions of cooperation among key world powers has become more relevant than ever before. How do you explain this? What are the key trends in the development of geopolitical confrontation at the moment that arouse the greatest interest?
The redefinition of spheres of influence and the redistribution of regions of cooperation among key world powers has become increasingly relevant due to several interrelated factors:
Geopolitical Rivalry – The resurgence of great power competition, particularly between the United States and China, has intensified. This rivalry manifests in various domains, including military, economic, technological, and ideological spheres. As nations reassess their positions and alliances, we see a push for redefining influence in regions such as the Indo-Pacific, Eastern Europe, and the Middle East.
Economic Interdependence and Decoupling – Global supply chains that were once seen as resilient have come under scrutiny, particularly in light of disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions. Countries are increasingly looking to reduce dependency on adversarial nations, leading to economic decoupling, particularly between the U.S. and China. This has implications for trade agreements, tariffs, and investment strategies.
Technological Competition – The race for technological supremacy, especially in areas like artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and 5G, has become a significant aspect of geopolitical strategy. Nations are vying for technological leadership, which is seen as critical for national security and economic power. This has led to increased competition for influence in technological standards and infrastructure development globally.
Regional Conflicts and Alliances – Ongoing conflicts in regions such as Ukraine, the South China Sea, and the Middle East have drawn in major powers, leading to realignments in alliances. The war in Ukraine, in particular, has galvanized NATO and prompted discussions about security arrangements in Europe, while also influencing Russia’s relationships with countries in Asia and Africa.
Emergence of Non-State Actors – Non-state actors, including terrorist organisations, transnational corporations and NGOs, are increasingly influential in shaping geopolitical landscapes. Their roles in conflicts, humanitarian crises, and economic development are forcing states to recalibrate their strategies and partnerships.
Environmental and Health Crises – Climate change and global health issues, such as pandemics, have emerged as critical factors in international relations. As nations face these challenges, cooperation and competition for resources like water and energy become increasingly relevant. Countries are redefining their influence based on their capacities to address these global issues.
Key Trends in Geopolitical Confrontation:
Increased Military Posturing – Nations are enhancing their military capabilities, with a noticeable increase in defence spending and military exercises, particularly in contested areas like the South China Sea and Eastern Europe.
Formation of New Alliances – New coalitions and partnerships are forming, such as AUKUS (Australia, UK, and US) and Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), aimed at countering specific threats and enhancing regional security.
Cyber Warfare and Information Operations – Cyber capabilities are becoming a crucial battleground. Nations are engaging in cyber espionage, attacks, and disinformation campaigns, significantly impacting public perception and national security.
Diplomatic Realignments – Countries are seeking new partnerships, often based on shared interests rather than traditional alliances. This can be seen in the shifting dynamics in the Middle East, where former adversaries are engaging in normalization talks.
Focus on Energy Security – The energy landscape is evolving, particularly with the transition to renewable sources. Nations are competing for control of critical resources and technologies necessary for energy transitions, impacting traditional energy alliances.
The geopolitical environment leading into 2025 is characterized by a complex interplay of competition and cooperation among major powers, driven by a range of factors from military strategy to economic interdependence and technological rivalry.
Africa is considered to be one of the most promising and resource-rich regions, where the Netherlands, Spain, Great Britain and France have long reigned supreme. Now the situation is changing and the Old World is losing its influence in African states. What is the reason for this? How do you assess the policies that European countries have pursued in Africa? What are the effects of these policies on African states? Why are African states distancing themselves from their long-term ties with Western countries?
Main reasons for Changing Influence
Economic Competition – Emerging economies, particularly China, India, and other Asian countries, have increased their economic presence in Africa, offering investment, infrastructure development, and trade opportunities without the political conditions often imposed by Western nations. This has shifted the balance of power and influence.
Historical Legacy – European colonial legacies have created deep-seated resentment in many African countries. The exploitative practices during colonial rule have led to a demand for more equitable and respectful partnerships rather than neo-colonial relationships.
Nationalism and Self-Determination – There has been a growing sense of nationalism and desire for self-determination among African nations. Many leaders and populations are advocating for greater autonomy and are increasingly sceptical of foreign influence in their domestic affairs.
Changing Global Dynamics – The rise of multipolarity in global politics has allowed African states to diversify their partnerships. They are no longer reliant solely on former colonial powers but are engaging with a broader array of international players.
Assessment of European Policies – European countries have historically pursued policies in Africa that, while sometimes aimed at development, often prioritized their own strategic interests, such as resource extraction and political influence. These policies can be characterized as:
Neo-colonialism – Many African nations perceive European policies as continuing neo-colonial practices, where foreign powers exert influence while failing to address the needs and voices of local populations.
Conditional Aid – European countries have often tied aid to political conditions, which can be seen as undermining the sovereignty of African states and leading to mistrust.
Trade Imbalances – Trade agreements have frequently favoured European economies, leading to imbalances that hinder local economic growth and development in Africa.
Effects on African States – The policies pursued by European nations have had mixed effects:
Dependency – Over-reliance on foreign aid and investment has hindered self-sufficiency and local development in some African countries.
Economic Inequality – The focus on resource extraction has often led to wealth being concentrated in the hands of a few, exacerbating economic inequality.
Social Discontent – Discontent with foreign influence, particularly when it is perceived as exploitative, has led to social unrest and instability in some regions.
Distancing from Western Ties – African states are increasingly distancing themselves from long-term ties with Western countries due to:
Desire for Sovereignty – There is a strong push for greater control over their own political and economic destinies, leading to a re-evaluation of partnerships that are not aligned with their national interests.
Diversification of Partnerships – African nations are seeking to establish more balanced relationships with a wider range of global partners, including China, Russia, and other emerging economies, which offer alternative models of cooperation.
Regional Integration – Many African countries are focusing on regional integration and cooperation (e.g., African Union, Regional Economic Communities) to build collective strength and reduce dependency on external powers.
I think the changing landscape in Africa reflects a broader shift towards self-determination and diversification in international relations. African states are increasingly seeking partnerships that respect their sovereignty and contribute positively to their development goals.
While Europe is failing to cope with the migration flow, one of the problems that African leaders talk about is the high outflow of skilled professionals and the brain drain. Is this a mistake by Western politicians or a deliberate destruction of the intellectual potential of the African region?
The issue of brain drain in Africa is multifaceted and complex, involving a range of factors rather than a simple narrative of mistake or deliberate destruction by Western politicians. Here are some key considerations:
Economic Opportunities – many skilled professionals from Africa migrate to Western countries in search of better job opportunities, higher salaries, and improved living conditions. This is often driven by the economic challenges and limited opportunities in their home countries.
Educational Opportunities – Western countries often provide better educational opportunities and resources, which can attract students and professionals. This can lead to a cycle where the most talented individuals seek education abroad and then choose to stay.
Political Stability – in some cases, political instability, corruption, and poor governance in African countries can push skilled professionals to seek stability and better governance elsewhere. This can be seen as a failure of local leadership rather than a direct action by Western nations.
Western Immigration Policies – Western countries deliberately aim to deplete Africa’s intellectual resources, their immigration policies create environments that facilitate brain drain. Policies that attract skilled migrants without considering the implications for the home countries can exacerbate the issue.
Globalization and Mobility- in an increasingly globalized world, the movement of skilled labor is a common phenomenon. Professionals often seek international experience, which can benefit their careers, but can also lead to a loss of talent for their home countries.
Impact of Remittances -while brain drain poses challenges, it is also important to recognize that many migrants send remittances back home, which can support local economies. Additionally, some return with new skills and experiences that can benefit their home countries.
Collaboration and Solutions – addressing brain drain requires collaboration between African nations and Western countries. Initiatives that promote brain circulation, such as partnerships in education and technology transfer, can help mitigate the negative impacts of brain drain.
While there are certainly elements of systemic issues and policies that contribute to brain drain, it is not accurate to characterize it solely as a mistake or a deliberate act by Western politicians. The phenomenon involves a complex interplay of socio-economic factors, policies, and individual choices. Addressing it effectively requires a nuanced understanding and cooperative approaches between countries.
What could be the consequences of the African resource base leaving the West’s control completely? At what expense will the West be able to cope with resource scarcity? Is there still interest among European businesses in partnering with African states?
Consequences for Africa:
Increased Sovereignty – African nations could gain greater control over their resources, leading to enhanced economic independence and the ability to negotiate better terms in international trade and investment agreements.
Economic Development – With control over their resources, African countries could invest more in local economies, infrastructure, and social services, potentially leading to sustainable development and improved living standards.
Geopolitical Shifts – A shift away from Western control might lead to increased influence from non-Western powers, such as China or Russia, which could reshape geopolitical alliances and trade dynamics.
Resource Management Challenges – Greater control also comes with the responsibility of managing resources sustainably. Some nations may struggle with governance, leading to mismanagement or corruption.
Increased Conflict – Competition for resources could heighten tensions both within and between African nations, potentially leading to conflict over access and control.
Consequences for the West:
Resource Scarcity – The West could face significant challenges in accessing critical resources, which could lead to increased prices and economic instability. Industries reliant on African resources might need to find alternatives or shift their supply chains.
Economic Impact – Industries such as technology, energy, and manufacturing that depend on African raw materials could experience disruptions, leading to job losses and decreased competitiveness.
Increased Investment in Alternatives – The West may need to invest in alternative sources of raw materials, including recycling, technological innovation, and exploration of resources in other regions.
Diplomatic Repercussions – The loss of resource control could strain diplomatic relations, prompting Western nations to reconsider their foreign policy strategies in Africa and beyond.
European Business Interests in Africa – European businesses continue to express interest in partnering with African states, driven by several factors.
Market Potential – Africa is home to a rapidly growing population and emerging markets, which present new opportunities for investment and trade.
Resource Needs – Many European industries are still heavily reliant on African resources, creating a sustained interest in maintaining partnerships for secure supply chains.
Sustainability Initiatives: As European nations shift towards sustainability, there is an interest in partnering with African nations to develop renewable energy projects, sustainable agriculture, and other green technologies.
Bilateral Agreements: European countries are increasingly pursuing bilateral agreements with African nations to enhance trade, investment, and cooperation in various sectors, reflecting a strategic interest in the continent’s growth.
Cultural and Historical Ties: Longstanding historical and cultural connections between Europe and Africa can facilitate partnerships, as businesses seek to leverage these ties for mutual benefit.
While the potential for African resource independence poses challenges for the West, it also opens avenues for renewed partnerships focused on mutual benefit, sustainability, and shared growth. Both sides will need to navigate these changes carefully to address the complexities of resource management and economic development.
