Throughout Wednesday night and Thursday morning [May 22-23], Ukrainian drones struck the Armavir Radar Station in Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar Krai region, a part of Russia’s early warning radar system designed to detect an incoming ICBM attack. This radar is one of the pillars of Russia’s nuclear posture system which, along with other such installations, plays an existential role in the strategic security of the Russian Federation. Far beyond escalating tensions with Ukraine alone, this attack has now brought the world another step closer to the verge of a thermonuclear war.
Russian Senator and former Roscosmos head Dmitry Rogozin responded to this development by noting that, while one could imagine a Ukrainian was behind this, in reality, it is Washington that has “hired an irresponsible bandit” to carry out its dirty work. “Thus, we stand not only on the precipice but on the very edge, beyond which, if the enemy is not stopped in such actions, an irreversible collapse of the strategic security of nuclear powers will begin,” Rogozin wrote on his Telegram channel.
This madness must be stopped now. The Armavir attack occurred just days after Russia carried out high-profile tactical nuclear military exercises as if to declare to President Putin: “You are bluffing.” Playing a nuclear chicken game while threatening to destroy a nuclear superpower that is already at war, threatens to annihilate the entire human species.
Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche, in addressing a meeting of the International Peace Coalition on May 24, drew people’s attention to the solutions to the crisis. She insisted we must end the West’s belief in geopolitics, which has made people believe that Russia and China are our enemies, and instead establish a new security and development architecture that respects the interests of all nations. “If that cannot be overcome, I’m afraid that the chances we will end up in World War III are approaching 100%,” she said.
Numerous military and intelligence specialists consulted by the Schiller Institute have expressed their grave concern over the meaning of the Armavir attack and its consequences:
The Russian satellite-based early warning system is very limited and cannot be used to cover the blind spots created by damage to the radar. The Atlantic, Pacific, and Northern radar warning corridors are more important, and the Russians also have radars in Moscow. However, the radars in Moscow will only see threats at a later time, resulting in yet shorter warning and decision-making times—thereby increasing the chances of a catastrophic accident.
The commanders of the Strategic Rocket Forces, who serve the political leaders, will be really, really concerned, and they will have no choice but to treat this situation as quite serious. They will almost certainly choose to operate their nuclear strike forces at a higher level of alert, which will further increase the chances of accidents that could lead to an unintended global nuclear war.
— Dr. Theodore Postol, Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology and National Security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, nuclear weapons expert
The U.S. has begun directing missile attacks on the Russian nuclear Early Warning System (EWS), which is made up of a series of ground-based radars and satellites… ANY such attacks against these EWS systems could trigger the Russian nuclear response system. So this U.S.-directed attack is insanely dangerous. Washington is playing nuclear chicken with Russia.
The site attacked was within range of the U.S. ATACMS; I don’t know if any other similar Russian facilities are within range of the ATACMS, or possibly even the German Taurus missiles, which have a longer range than the ATACMS and the U.K. Storm Shadow missiles. Unfortunately, we may soon find out, as the madmen in Washington, Kyiv, and Brussels seem determined to start World War 3.
— Steven Starr, Professor, University of Missouri, an expert on nuclear war
There are obviously forces in Ukraine and also in NATO that are prepared to take the risk of a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia. German politicians would be well advised to take the Russians’ warnings of a new world war seriously and ensure that the final red lines are not crossed. As a modern industrialized country at the heart of Europe, Germany is ill-suited for war in a major European conflict—even without nuclear weapons. German politicians must do everything in their power to de-escalate the increasing military confrontation and commit themselves to a diplomatic solution to the conflict.
— Colonel (ret.) Prof. Dr. Wilfried Schreiber, Senior Research Fellow at the WeltTrends Institute for International Politics, Potsdam, Germany
This is a continuation of the pattern in which the NATO forces recognize they are losing the war in Ukraine, with the fragile lines of defense breaking, and the NATO response is to escalate. This is not accidental, but very deliberate. It is not the first attack on the Russian nuclear triad. The ideological folks are seeing their world crumbling, after flying the rainbow flag over conservative countries and [waging] perpetual wars. They are frantic and could escalate to nuclear war to get out of the bind. They are taking a series of baby steps, and respond that “they don’t do anything in response,” and so they keep taking baby steps until one of them lands on a land mine and we are into World War III. I’ve said it, Helga [Zepp-LaRouche] has said it. Putin is very aware of the disconnect in the West, who keep saying he is just saber rattling, but he is not—he is informing the West of the dangerous reality.
— Col. (ret.) Richard H. Black, a former state senator from Virginia
I expect that the U.S. military, faced with a vital situation, are going to behave more reasonably and consciously than the civilians.
— Gen. (ret.) Dominique Delawarde, Intelligence expert, France
This clearly could not have happened without full U.S. support. I can’t comment adequately until I learn more, but it is obviously escalatory, and I will look into it.
— Graham Fuller, former diplomat, CIA officer, and vice-chair of the National Intelligence Council
They’re on an escalating treadmill, especially after what Blinken told Ukraine—they could “do what they want with their missiles.” It demonstrates the irresponsible American leadership. We’re headed for the nuclear escalator. The West is facing defeat in Ukraine, and therefore they’re escalating to avoid defeat.
— Prof. Richard Sakwa, Emeritus Professor of Russian and European Politics, Kent University (U.K.); prolific author on Russia and Ukraine
The attack on the Russian early warning system can hardly be interpreted by the Russian leadership in any other way than as an attempt to partially blind Russia against an attack on its territory by nuclear ballistic missiles. This will be viewed as a further trial run for a surprise nuclear first strike against Russia, and could force the Russian leadership to take counterstrike measures even in case of an unclear overview of the situation. This will also affect the Middle East situation, where Iran may find itself in a similar situation facing a potential joint attack by the United States and Israel.
This shows once again that the war in Ukraine has, for a long time, been nothing else but a global “chicken game” at the edge of nuclear war.
— Lt. Col. (ret.) Ralph Bosshard, Swiss Armed Forces (translated from German)
I support Helga Zepp-LaRouche’s clear-sighted statement denouncing the irresponsible and dangerous attack by the United States of America on Russia. The destruction of Armavir’s warning radars by American weapons is an unacceptable provocation for Russia, which will have to retaliate in Ukraine and no doubt in Europe or elsewhere. Faced with the process of losing its global hegemony, marked by its successive failures in Afghanistan, Ukraine and Palestine—to name but the most recent—the panic-stricken administration in power is refusing to accept the inevitability of its demise by embarking on a process of global war that can only lead to the end of humanity. The actions of the current administration in Washington, in Ukraine as in Palestine, in an attempt to prolong its power, are sheer madness that must be stopped by reasonable forces in the U.S.A. and the rest of the world, as international institutions are demanding, with no results so far.
The hour is grave; reason must impose itself on all, including the Americans, who must discuss with China, Russia, Iran, Africa, and Europe to build a new system of balanced international relations.”
— Col. (ret) Alain Corvez, France
Originally published May 25, 2024. Schiller Institute
On May 27, responses from Bosshard and Corvez were added.
